Economic rebound hasn’t yet stabilized: CEPD


By Linger Liu, The China Post

TAIPEI, Taiwan — The Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD) yesterday said the economy in January amounted to a “ yellow-blue” signal, indicating that the current economic recovery has yet to stabilize.

According to the CEPD, the nation’s business indicators showed the annualized six-month rate of leading indexes increased by 1.4 points. The trend-adjusted coincident index increased by 0.2 percent from the previous month and the overall monitoring indicator for the economy flashed a “yellow-blue” signal, the CEPD said. Indicators Suggest

Uncertain Growth

The bureau said the leading indicators stood at 137.3, up by 1.3 points from December of last year. The indicators’ annualized six-month rate of change increased by 1.4 points to 9.7 percent, according to the CEPD.

Indicators show that SEMI book-to-bill ratio, index of export orders, building permits, index of producers’ inventory for manufacturing (inverted), stock price index and real monetary aggregates M1B had positive cyclical movements from December last year, said the CEPD. Average monthly overtime in industry and services had negative cyclical movement from the previous month.

The coincident index stood at 135.1, up by 0.6 percent from December 2012 said the CEPD.

Real machineries and electrical equipment imports, sales index of trade and food services, and electric power consumption had positive cyclical movements from the previous month, according to the bureau’s statistics.

The index of producers’ shipments for manufacturing, nonagricultural employment, industrial production index, and real customs-cleared exports had negative cyclical movements from previous month. The lagging indicators stood at 135, down by 0.2 percent from December 2012. Its trend-adjusted index decreased by 0.6 percent to 99, the CEPD reported.

Indicators show loans and investments of monetary financial institutions had positive cyclical movement from the previous month.

The manufacturing unit output labor cost index, unemployment rate (inverted), inventories to sales ratio for manufacturing, regular employees on payrolls in industry and services, and interbank overnight call-loan rate had negative cyclical movements from the previous month, according to the CEPD’s report.

The bureau said the monitoring signal for the domestic economy was adjusted from “green” to “yellow-blue.” The total score in January was down by 3 points to 19, flashing the “yellow-blue” signal for the fifth consecutive month said the bureau.

Among the nine components, the industrial production index, nonagricultural employment and imports of machineries and electrical equipment each lost one point and changed their individual light signals, said the CEPD. The light signals for the remaining six components remained the same from precious month.