Short-term GDP growth tied to higher mortality: study


PARIS–We all live longer when times are good, right? Not so, according to a new study which says that in developed countries, the elderly have a higher mortality rate when the economy goes into higher gear. Even its authors are baffled by the outcome. The finding was “highly unexpected”, Herbert Rolden from the Leyden Academy on Vitality and Ageing in the Netherlands, told AFP. In the long term, economic prosperity is credited with lower mortality rates across all age groups — largely due to a drop in old-age mortality. But the picture changes when you look at short-term economic fluctuations, according to the study.

For every rise of one percentage point in a country’s gross domestic product, mortality among 70- to 74-year-old men rose by 0.36 percent and for women of the same age by 0.18 percent, it found. The study analyzed mortality and economic growth figures from 1950 to 2008 in 19 developed countries — Australia, Japan, New Zealand, the United States and several in Europe.

“Since many developed countries are currently in a recession, one could expect that this has a dampening effect on old age survival,” says the study. “However, it has been found that annual increases in unemployment, or decreases in gross domestic product (GDP) are associated with lower mortality rates.” A similar, seemingly counterintuitive trend had already been found in younger people. That had been ascribed to more work stress and traffic accidents due to higher employment in economic boom times. But such factors are unlikely to hold true for older, retired people, said Rolden. “We are still in the dark on what really explains the association,” he admitted. The cause may lie in a change in social structure, with younger relatives and friends working longer and having less time to care for the elderly, according to one, untested, theory.