PARIS–Earth may experience a radically different climate already within 34 years, forever changing life as we know it, said a study Wednesday that aims to bring the dangers of global warming into sharper focus. On current trends of greenhouse-gas emissions, 2047 will mark the year at which the climate at most places on Earth will shift beyond documented extremes, it said. This date is pushed back to 2069 under a scenario in which fossil-fuel burning emissions are stabilized, said an analysis of climate projections published in the journal Nature. “The results shocked us,” lead author Camilo Mora of the University of Hawaii’s geography department said of the findings. “Within my generation, whatever climate we are used to will be a thing of the past.” Most climate studies predict average, global shifts by a randomly-chosen cutoff date like 2100. The new study took a different tack by distinguishing between different areas of the world, and seeking to identify the year in which climate change will cross the threshold where weather events once viewed as extreme become the norm. It looked at effects such as air and sea-surface temperature, rainfall and ocean acidity. “Regardless of the scenario, changes will be coming soon,” said Mora — forcing species to adapt, move or die out. “The work demonstrates that we are pushing the ecosystems of the world out of the environment in which they evolved into wholly new conditions that they may not be able to cope with. Extinctions are likely to result,” commented Ken Caldeira of the Carnegie Institution for Science’s global ecology department.
The tropics may be hit soonest and hardest, according to the study. Tropical plants and animals are not used to variations in climate and are thus more vulnerable to even small changes.
“The tropics hold the world’s greatest diversity of marine and terrestrial species and will experience unprecedented climates some 10 years earlier than anywhere else on Earth,” said a statement. They are also home to the bulk of the world’s population and contribute significantly to global food supply.