By Bradley Klapper ,AP
WASHINGTON — The framework nuclear deal sealed by world powers and Iran leaves major questions: Could Iran cheat? Possibly. Would the U.S or anyone else be able to respond in time? In theory, yes. Are they prepared to use military force? Questionable.
Would a final deal settle global fears about Iran’s intentions? Almost surely, no.
But the surprisingly detailed fact sheet released by the United States after Thursday’s diplomatic breakthrough in Switzerland provides U.S. President Barack Obama significant ammunition for the fight he’ll face selling an agreement to skeptical U.S. lawmakers and Middle East allies. That is, if negotiators can get to that point over the next three months.
As Obama said from the White House, ��Their work, our work, is not yet done and success is not guaranteed.�� And the parameters for a comprehensive accord by June 30 still include big holes for Washington and its negotiating partners.
The limits are vague on Iran’s research and development of advanced technology that could be used for producing nuclear weapons. Inspectors still might not be able to enter Iranian military sites where nuclear work previously took place. The Americans and Iranians already are bickering over how fast economic sanctions on Iran would be relaxed. And Obama’s assertion that the penalties could always be snapped back into force is undermined by the U.S. fact sheet describing a ��dispute resolution process�� enshrined in the agreement.
‘breakout time’ But the biggest issue may be one U.S. officials have emphasized above all others: the ��breakout time�� Iran would need to surreptitiously produce a nuclear weapon. The framework imposes a combination of restrictions that would leave Iran needing to work for at least a year to accomplish that goal, rather than the two-to-three months currently.
Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry have cited the longer breakout period as proof they’ve secured a ��good deal�� and say the one-year window is enough time for the U.S. to detect a covert Iranian push toward a bomb and to respond.
That standard would hold only for a decade, however. Over the following five years, it’s unclear how far Iran’s nuclear program would be kept from the bomb. And after the 15-year deal expires completely, there appear to be no constraints left to speak of �X something congressional opponents and Iran’s regional rivals Israel and Saudi Arabia point to as evidence of a ��bad deal.��
��This deal would pose a grave danger to the region and to the world and would threaten the very survival of the State of Israel,�� Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said after an Israeli cabinet meeting Friday. ��In a few years,�� he said, ��the deal would remove the restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program, enabling Iran to have a massive enrichment capacity that it could use to produce many nuclear bombs within a matter of months.��
These matters and many more will now be weighed by a Congress that has watched impatiently over 18 months of negotiations. Republicans are almost universally opposed to Obama’s diplomatic effort; Democrats are divided. Together they’ll look at two possible pathways for congressional intervention.