Train attack shows impossibility of tracking all jihadists

By Eric Randolph ,AFP

PARIS — The thwarted attack by a gunman on a high-speed train between Amsterdam and Paris has underlined the difficulty faced by intelligence services in tracking the unprecedented numbers of potential jihadists, experts say. The Moroccan suspect in Friday’s incident, identified as 25-year-old Ayoub El Khazzani, was first flagged by Spanish authorities as a potential extremist and had reportedly traveled to Syria. He was overpowered by other passengers before he could kill anyone in the train. A Spanish counter-terrorism source said Khazzani had lived in Spain from 2007 to March 2014, before traveling to Syria from France. In a timely interview published on the same day as the attack, Alain Grignard, a senior member of Belgium’s counter-terrorism police unit, said the terrorist threat has “never been higher in all the years I’ve been working.” “It boils down to mathematics and it’s all linked to the Syria dynamic,” Grignard told CTC Sentinel, the in-house journal of the U.S. military academy at West Point. “There’s no way of knowing the exact numbers but I can tell you with certainty that at least 300 have traveled — that’s the number we have sufficient evidence to bring charges against. At least 100 have returned to Belgium, but we are under no illusions that there aren’t more we don’t know about. It’s impossible to do surveillance on everybody.” It’s a point driven home by terrorism expert Raffaello Pantucci, of the Royal United Services Institute in London.

“The authorities know about a lot of people but not which ones will actually launch an attack,” he said. “It’s a very resource-intensive job. You need three shifts with several people, and equipment and vehicles, to watch someone 24 hours a day. Intelligence agencies just aren’t big enough to do that for everyone.”

‘Different priorities’ Grignard said the number of terrorism suspects had mushroomed in recent years. “To give you an idea of the scale of the challenge, in the past two years we’ve charged more people with terrorism offenses than in the 30 years before that,” he said.

“Our approach in Belgium is to detain everybody suspected of fighting with terrorist groups in Syria when they return to Belgium. But in lots of cases we do not have enough evidence (to charge them).” Belgium, where Khazzani boarded the train in the capital Brussels, is thought to have the highest per capita number of people in Europe leaving to fight in the Middle East. The threat was underlined when a jihadist cell linked to the Islamic State group was busted in Belgium in January, thwarting an alleged plot to attack police. But France has the highest overall numbers joining the jihad, with the government reporting that 843 had left for Syria as of May — more than half of them unknown to authorities at the time of their departure.