SEMI(國際半導體產業協會)發表2019年第一季全球晶圓廠預測報告指出,2019全球晶圓廠設備支出預期將下滑14%至530億美元,但強調隨著行動通訊、物聯網、車用和工業應用的強勁需求,預估到了2020年將強勁復甦27%達670億美元,並締造新高紀綠。

Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) published 2019’s first quarter report earlier this month saying that the semiconductor industry spending would decrease 14 percent to 53 billion. But as the demand of chips in industries such as mobile communication, internet, and car increases, it is expected that the semiconductor industry spending would increase 27 percent to record-breaking 67billion.

SEMI旗下產業研究與統計事業群(Industry & Statistics Group)指出,受到記憶體產業衰退影響,已連續三年成長的晶圓廠設備支出榮景,即將在2019年告一段落。

SEMI’s Industry & Statistics Group pointed out that due to the decline of RAM (rapid access memory) industry, the three consecutive years of growth that the semiconductor industry had experienced will come to a stop in 2019.

過去兩年間,記憶體占年度所有設備支出比重約為55%,但2019年將下探45%,但強調2020年會再回升到55%。

For the last two years, RAM accounted for 55 percent of the production of the semiconductor industry and will drop to 45 percent in 2019. But the Industry & Statistics Group emphasize that it will return to 55 percent in 2020.

SEMI檢視每半年的晶圓廠設備支出趨勢圖後可以看出,由於2018下半年起記憶體庫存的增加以及終端需求疲軟,導致2018下半年DRAM和NAND(3D NAND)相關支出開始修正,進而拖累記憶體支出下滑14%

SEMI analyzed that due to the increase of in-stock RAM and the decrease in demand, RAM spending decreased 14 percent as the spending on DRAM and NAND decreased in the second half of 2018.

這股下滑趨勢將延續到2019年上半年,屆時記憶體支出將下滑36%,但預計到下半年相關支出可望反彈35%。

This slump will drop will continue until the second quarter of 2019 with an expected drop of 36 percent but will hopefully bounce back 35 percent during the second half of 2019.

儘管2019年下半市場可望鹹魚翻身,但報告認為2019年全年記憶體支出仍將較2018年下滑30%。

Even though RAM spending will bounce, reports suggested that the global spending this year will still drop 30 percent comparing to 2018.

SEMI指出,晶圓代工是晶圓廠設備支出的第二大項目,過去兩年間,每年占整體支出比重約在25%到30%之間,預期2019和2020年的比重將持穩在30%左右。

SEMI pointed out that wafer foundry is the second largest spending in the semiconductor industry. The spending has been around 25 percent to 30 percent for the last two years and is expected to be around 30 percent for the next two years.

SEMI表示,雖然晶圓代工設備支出的波動程度通常小於記憶體部門,面對市場變化還是無法完全免役。

SEMI said that even though the changes in wafer foundry department are usually less than the memory department, wafer foundry department is still not immune to market change.

舉例來說,記憶體部門開始衰退之後,2018年下半晶圓代工設備支出也比上半年下滑13%。

For example, after the memory decline started, spending in wafer foundry also deceased for 13 percent in 2018 comparing to the first two quarters.