民調》若「蔡賴配」聯手角逐2020 將大敗韓國瑜柯文哲 | Ruling party ticket could beat opposition in 2020: poll

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兩岸政策協會於3月21日公布「2020總統選情及蔡英文總統近期表現滿意度民調」。

TAIPEI (The China Post/ANN) – On March 21, the Cross-Strait Policy Association (CSPA) published a poll on the popularity of Taiwan candidates in the 2020 Presidential Election and the satisfaction rate of President Tsai Ing-wen’s administration.

調查顯示若民進黨整合成功,推出夢幻組合「蔡賴配」,支持度將躍居第一,領先韓國瑜及柯文哲。

If Tsai could work with former Premier Lai Ching-te, the survey indicates that they could win over Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu and Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je, two potential candidates in the upcoming election.

反之若蔡英文、賴清德分別對上韓國瑜及柯文哲,蔡英文及賴清德都小幅落後給韓國瑜,只能位居第二。

On the other hand, if the ruling party cannot convince them to join the same ticket and decide to run separately, their respective support rate would fall second to Han Kuo-yu.

這份民調顯示,在蔡英文(29.6%)、韓國瑜(35.4%)及柯文哲(25.9%)參選狀況下,蔡英文以5.8%落後韓國瑜,位居第二。

According to data, if Tsai Ing-wen, Han Kuo-yu, and Ko Wen-je compete against each other in a three-way race, their respective support rate is 29.6 percent, 35.4 percent, and 25.9 percent.

在賴清德(31.3%)、韓國瑜(32.9%)及柯文哲(25.7%)參選狀況下,賴清德也落後韓國瑜1.6%。

In the eventuality of a match between Lai, Han, and Ko, Lai would fall behind Han by 1.6 percent.

在蔡賴配(34.3%)、韓國瑜(32.8%)及柯文哲(22.3%)參選狀況下,反由「蔡賴配」領先韓國瑜1.5%。

However, if Tsai Ing-wen wants Lai on her 2020 ticket, the support rate between the DPP team, Han, and Ko would be 34.3 percent, 32.8 percent, and 22.3 percent, leading Han by 1.5 percent instead.

這份調查於108年3月19到20日實施,成功訪問1,080名成年人,在95%信心水準下,抽樣誤差為正負2.98%,調查以台灣地區住宅電話為母體,並採電話號碼尾數2碼隨機方式進行。調查數據並針對受訪者性別、年齡及縣市別進行樣本代表性檢定後加權處理。

The poll was conducted on March 19-20 and successfully interviewed 1,080 adults at a 95 percent confidence interval with a 2.98 percent margin error. The population was based on residential telephones in Taiwan and used number 2 as the last digit in the randomly sampling. The results were then sorted and weighted in terms of gender, age, and cities and counties.