郭台銘提金融海嘯來襲 專家說貿易世界大戰恐先來 | Terry Gou warns of pending financial crisis

國民黨總統參選人郭台銘示警金融海嘯將再一次出現,為此台經院景氣預測中心主任孫明德認為還要再觀察,但貿易戰從美中擴及他國形成貿易世界大戰,或許才值得先關注。(圖/NOWnews資料照)| Picture of Gordon Sun, director of the Taiwan Insititute of Economic Research. (NOWnews)

國民黨總統參選人郭台銘昨(2)日接受媒體訪問時,憂心與示警金融海嘯將再一次出現。為此,台經院景氣預測中心主任孫明德今(3)日指出,5月早已預測景氣向上趨勢被打斷,至於會不會造成金融海嘯還要再觀察,因為金融海嘯成因複雜。但他提醒大家值得注意的是,美中貿易戰變成「貿易世界大戰」的可能性。

Foxconn Chairman Terry Gou, who is also a candidate in the Kuomintang (KMT) primary election, warned of a possible financial tsunami during an interview on June 2. In response to Gou’s comments, Gordon Sun, director of the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER), said on June 3 that the consequences of a financial downfall could have complex consequences. Based on TIER’s predictions in early May, Sun said that a case scenario for a major financial crisis was already being considered, warning that the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China could become a “global trade war.”

美中貿易戰雙方又做出反擊,中國大陸也舉行中美經貿談判白皮書記者會,迎戰美國。而面對貿易戰似乎有擴大局勢,郭台銘2日走訪南門市場時接受媒體訪問表示,世界的經濟將會在數月,甚至數周內產生急劇的變化,這影響到不只是製造業、工業,影響到的是股價、匯率還有中小企業,很多企業的生存,甚至影響到將來的消費經濟。

In recent months, the United States and China have mutually challenged each other. China recently held a press conference on the trade war during which authorities dared the United States to further retaliate. Gou, while visiting the Nanmen market on June 2, said that the world economy would undergo drastic changes over the next few months, or even days, that will have an effect on the manufacturing industry, impacting stock prices, exchange rates, and small to medium enterprises.

郭台銘表示,「我要是蔡總統的話,現在應該坐在總統府召開國安級的經濟彙報」。他說台灣不能置身事外,最近跟很多中小企業座談,他們都反映拿不到訂單,呼籲蔡總統要重視這個問題,尤其這一次可能發生比金融海嘯還要大的問題,都有可能在短時間內出現,進而衝擊國內消費造成經濟崩潰。

“If I were President Tsai Ing-wen, I would be sitting in the Presidential Office requesting to hold a national economic security report,” Gou said. According to the senior business leader, Taiwan cannot hide from this issue, as many small and medium enterprises haven’t received any orders yet. He asked President Tsai Ing-wen to take concrete actions regarding this issue, especially due to the recent economic forecasts that predict an economic downfall. Gou warns that the economic downfall may occur in a short period of time, which will immensely impact domestic consumption, and lead to economic collapse.

為此,台經院景氣預測中心主任孫明德今(3)日接受《NOWnews今日新聞》電訪時表示,中小企業是產業的末梢神經,郭台銘從他們口中得知接不到訂單,時序上反映已經晚了,其實台經院5月調查報告就預知了景氣向上趨勢已經被打斷,且最近大廠如中鋼、台塑,從報價、股東會與法說會來看,都說明下半年景氣不明朗,甚至悲觀氣氛濃厚。

As such, in an interview given to NOWnews on June 3, Sun echoed Gou’s statements about small and medium enterprises, stressing that they are very worried about the industry. Sun remarked that before Gou discovered this trend about these enterprises not receiving any orders, a TIER report in May had already predicted that the upward trend of the economy would be interrupted. In addition, in recent shareholder meetings of China Steel and Formosa Plastic Corporation, the companies indicated that the economy would be uncertain in the second half of the year, adding that pessimistic sentiments are high.

孫明德表示,連上游大廠感受都已經那麼深,那更何況中小企業就更沒有抵抗的能力。至於會不會造成金融海嘯,孫認為還很難說,因為要造成像金融海嘯還需要很多複雜的條件,不會單就貿易戰就造成金融海嘯,且貿易戰已經從去年打到現在,歷史上也有許多貿易戰,會不會造成金融海嘯還要再觀察。

Sun also found that big manufacturers have been affected. Asked whether a financial downfall was to occur, he believes that it is still too difficult to say. Based on previous trade wars, Sun found that many of them lead to financial downfall. However, he was not conclusive on whether a downfall was to occur, as this question has many complicated aspects.

孫明德指出,「我們只能說貿易戰的確對金融市場造成波動,但貿易戰本身不完全是金融海嘯最主要的因素」。但孫也提醒,貿易戰已經從美中擴及其他國家,包括印度、歐洲到日本,美國都可能打貿易戰,從美中貿易戰變成「貿易世界大戰」,這反而值得各界注意!

Sun said: “We can only say that the trade war will cause economic fluctuations, even though the trade war cannot completely explain the primary cause of the economic downfall”. Sun also notes that the trade war has expanded rapidly to places including India, Europe, and Japan. Since this war is becoming a “global trade war,” Sun expressed hopes that everybody would be aware of these significant issues. •