民調力壓賴清德、韓國瑜、柯文哲 蔡英文贏黨內初選 | President Tsai defeats William Lai in DPP primary

歷經將近三個月的初選過程,民進黨初選民調今(13)日公布民調結果,最終蔡英文以35.6的支持度,勝過賴清德27.4%,雙方差距8.2%,蔡英文將代表民進黨參加2020總統大選,力拚連任。

After nearly three months of campaigning, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) released the results of its primary poll on June 13 in which current President Tsai Ing-wen won 35.6 percent of respondents, while former premier William Lai obtained 27.4 percent. The 8.2 percent gap between the two candidates means that President Tsai will once again represent the ruling DPP in the 2020 presidential election.

外界原本以為黨內不會有人出來挑戰蔡英文連任,不料3月18日,初選登記第一天,賴清德就搶了登記的頭香,給外界投下震撼彈,更展開了持續近90天的英德之爭。

At first, nobody believed that someone would challenge President Tsai in the primary election. But in a shocking twist sparked the primary when former premier William Lai registered in the election of March 18.

According to the result of the poll, if Tsai faces Han Kuo-yu (KMT) and Ko Wen-je in the 2020 presidential election, Tsai could receive up to 36 percent of support, while Han would receive 24.5 percent and Ko would receive 22.7 percent, respectively. (NOWnews)

民調結果中,若假設2020是蔡英文對決韓國瑜,以及柯文哲三選,蔡韓柯分別獲得35.6、24.5%、22.7的支持度;若是賴韓柯,三者獲得27.4%、23.4%、27.3%的支持度,顯示民進黨不論推派蔡或賴,皆勝過韓國瑜、柯文哲,但蔡英文的領先數字皆拉到10%以上。

According to the result of the poll, if Tsai faces Han Kuo-yu (of the opposition Kuomintang) and Ko Wen-je in the 2020 presidential election, Tsai could receive up to 36 percent of support, while Han would receive 24.5 percent and Ko would receive 22.7 percent, respectively. If the former premier faces Han and Ko, Lai would receive 27.4 percent, Han would receive 23.4 percent and Ko would receive 27.3 percent. The degree of the support in the polls show that either way DPP would win regardless of whether they send Tsai or Lai, but Tsai Ing-wen would have a bigger lead.

數據結果待雙方確認後,由黨主席卓榮泰正式宣布民調結果。民進黨19日將召開中執會,正式公告總統提名人名單。

After the results of the poll are confirmed by both sides, the results will officially be announced by DPP Chairman Cho Jung-tai. The DPP will hold a central executive meeting on June 19 to formally announce the nomination of President Tsai.

這次民進黨總統初選民調首度採用市話與手機比例各半,並由蔡英文、賴清德分別與高雄市長韓國瑜、台北市長柯文哲,進行三方對比式民調。初選民調委託五家民調公司進行,做足1萬5000份有效樣本。

For the first time, the DPP’s presidential primary conducted the polling through mobile phones and landline calls. The primary poll was conducted by five polling companies and was determined from a sample of 15,000. ●