TAIPEI 25 (CNA) — The Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER) maintained its forecast for Taiwan’s 2019 economic growth rate at 2.12 percent Thursday, citing an optimistic outlook for the domestic economy, despite uncertainties arising from trade conflicts among some of the world’s major economies.
While some other agencies have lowered their 2019 projections for Taiwan’s economic growth, TIER “did not see any reason to do likewise,” its president Chang Chien-yi (張建一) said.
“Unless there is a drastic change in the global situation, Taiwan’s economy will expand faster in the second half of the year than in the first half, paving the way for an annual economic growth of more that 2 percent for the whole year,” Chang said.
Earlier in the month, Academia Sinica trimmed its projection to 2.01 percent, while the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research cut its forecast to 2.06 percent.
Gordon Sun (孫明德), director of TIER’s Economic Forecasting Center, said the outlook for the domestic economy is rosier than that for the global economy, particularly in light of a 5.2 percent spike in private-sector investment in Taiwan driven by capital from returning overseas-based Taiwanese businesses amid a trade war between the United States and China.
Sun said, however, that the China-U.S. trade disputes and the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s interest rate policy remain the two major concerns for Taiwan’s economic outlook.
Also on Thursday, TIER released the results of its monthly survey of the local business climate, which showed that in June, the indexes for the manufacturing and service sectors contracted to 93.03 and 92.43 points, respectively, while the construction sector’s increased by 4.34 percentage points to 97.81 percent.
By Flor Wang and Pan Tzu-yu