最新民調!藍綠對決蔡英文支持度過半 大勝韓國瑜19.8% | Tsai Ing-wen wins over Han Kuo-yu in new poll

最新民調顯示,在藍綠對決下,蔡英文支持度已過半,達51.0%、韓國瑜則為31.2%;和5月的調查結果相比,蔡英文的支持度大幅增加7.6個百分點。(圖/記者 林人芳攝,2019,08,07) | A new poll showed Tsai Ing-wen gathered 51 percent support, while Kuomintang president candidate Han Kuo-yu was at 31.2 percent. (NOWnews)
最新民調顯示,在藍綠對決下,蔡英文支持度已過半,達51.0%、韓國瑜則為31.2%;和5月的調查結果相比,蔡英文的支持度大幅增加7.6個百分點。(圖/記者 林人芳攝,2019,08,07) | A new poll showed Tsai Ing-wen gathered 51 percent support, while Kuomintang president candidate Han Kuo-yu was at 31.2 percent. (NOWnews)

【看英文中國郵報學英文】台灣制憲基金會今(7)日公布最新民調顯示,在藍綠對決下,蔡英文支持度已過半,達51.0%、韓國瑜則為31.2%;和5月的調查結果相比,蔡英文的支持度大幅增加7.6個百分點。

A new poll published on Wednesday by Taiwan New Constitution Foundation shows that incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) gathered 51 percent of support, a 7.6-percent increase since May; while Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜) of the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) gathered 31.2 percent.

台灣制憲基金會執行長林宜正表示,蔡英文總統的選情可以期待強調,也強調不論韓國瑜、柯文哲、郭台銘、王金平的分合進退,中國北京政權最後會影響,且目標只有一個就是,什麼組合是對蔡英文殺傷力最大的。

Asked about the results of the poll, Executive Director Lin I-cheng warned that Beijing would still try to interfere in the election by supporting either Han Kuo-yu, Ko Wen-je (柯文哲), Terry Guo (郭台銘) or Wang Jin-pyng (王金平), even though Tsai performed well in this poll.

本次民調結果顯示,台灣民眾黨一躍成為第3大黨,會吸走30.9%時代力量支持者的政黨票。不過,林宜正斷言,柯文哲如果選總統,台灣民眾黨的政黨得票率天花板是15%;柯文哲如果不選總統,則台灣民眾黨的政黨得票率10%是天花板。

According to the survey, Ko’s newly established Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) became the third political party attracting 30.9 percent of the New Power Party’s (NPP) supporters. If Ko runs for president, Lin believes that the TPP will gain no more than 15 percent of support; if Ko doesn’t run, then the highest support that TPP can gather would be 10 percent.

在藍綠白三角督的情況下,民調顯示,總統大選支持度,蔡英文(41.9%)、韓國瑜(25.7%)、柯文哲(22.6%);和2019年5月的調查結果相比,在藍綠白三角督的情況下,蔡英文的支持度大增8.1%。

If Tsai Ing-wen, Han Kuo-yu and Ko Wen-je all join the election, the poll shows that Tsai will gather 41.9 percent of support, Han 25.7 percent and Ko 22.6 percent.

至於郭台銘有33.9%的民眾支持以無黨籍的身分參選總統。至於政黨票投票傾向,民進黨30.5%、國民黨27.2%、台灣民眾黨15.5%、時代力量4.7%。

Almost 34 percent of respondents would support Terry Guo’s decision to run for president independently. Meanwhile, political parties, including the Democratic Progressive Part, KMT, TPP and NPP, gather 30.5 percent, 27.2 percent, 15.5 percent and 4.7 percent of support, respectively.

這份民調是針對台閩地區22個縣市、年滿20歲民眾進行調查。調查時間8月1日到3日,採分層比例隨機抽樣,共完成1,068份有效樣本,在95%信心誤差為正負3.0%。

The poll was conducted from Aug.1 to Aug. 3 in 22 counties with the respondent over 20-year-old. The poll gathered 1,068 effective samples, had a 3 percent margin of error with a confidence level of 95 percent.