協防台灣成本過高!資深分析師:中美若開戰美軍恐潰敗 | Strategic losses in U.S.-China war would outweigh tactical victory of protecting Taiwan: analyst

據悉美國擬販售台灣至少四架高級無人機,此圖即為一架美國無人機 |A U.S. drone is featured in this illustration amid reports that the United States is in negotiations to sell at least four advanced aerial drones to Taiwan. (Courtesy of DB for The China Post)

【看CP學英文】美國資深分析師戴維斯(Daniel L. Davis) 說道, 面對中國接二連三的侵略行為,美國是否該保衛台灣始終備受關注,但是人們鮮少討論美軍戰勝共軍的機率以及美方的代價。 

There is a never-ending debate about whether the United States should defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, even though little thought is usually given to whether it can do so successfully and at which costs, according to analyst Daniel L. Davis. 

戴維為退役美國陸軍中校,是現任 Defense Priorities資深分析師於八月六日國家利益》雜誌上刊載專文,標題名為美國能否成功擊退中國對台灣的入侵 

The senior fellow for Defense Priorities and a former lieutenant colonel in the U.S. Army made this argument in his recent analysis, Can America Successfully Repel a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan?, published on Aug. 6 in The National Interest. 

中國日益增強的軍事實力已對東南亞國家造成威脅,台灣人民也十分好奇美國是否會再度扮演「老大哥」的角色,介入中共對台的侵略。戴維斯發表的最新專文,正好可一解眾人惑。 

This is a timely topic as U.S. authorities consider that Chinas military buildup is threatening the stability of South East Asia while the Taiwanese are wondering whether the United States would be in the lead in repelling an eventual invasion of Taiwan. 

戴維斯指出,一旦台海戰爭爆發,出兵協防的美軍極有可能遭共軍擊敗。即使靠著戰獲勝,美方也得付出慘重的代價 

The analyst argues that a tactical victory could also lead to devastating strategic losses, given that the likelihood of U.S. forces being defeated in a war between China and Taiwan remains uncomfortably high. 

不過這並不代表美國被逼窮途末路,戴維斯呼籲美國領導人須審慎提出一個既符合成本又能維護國家利益的替代策略。 

This argument does not mean that there are no alternative strategies to effectively protect U.S. interests at an affordable cost though, according to the U.S. analyst who warns that U.S. leaders should take the time to conduct their own assessment first. 

然而戴維斯感嘆說道,許多方決策者貌似對美國外交政策及其影響認識不夠透徹 

Davis, however, laments that U.S. policymakers routinely engage in a context in which they have little or no understanding of the impact of such a scenario on U.S. foreign policy. 

舉例來說,前美國國防部長辦公室中國科科長包士可(Joseph Bosco) 呼籲美國國會應盡快通過《台灣防衛法》(Taiwan Defense Act),釋出以武力侵台,美必防禦台灣」的強烈訊號。 

Former Pentagon official Joseph Bosco, for instance, echoed the wishes of many this summer when he called for Congress to pass the Taiwan Defense Act, expecting that U.S. policy will take military action against Chinas military eventual aggression against Taiwan. 

但是,指出,若國會通過《台灣防衛法》,美國政府便有義務延遲及阻撓中國任何以武力控制台灣的舉 

If the law is signed, however, the U.S. government would be obliged to delay and ultimately thwart any attempt by China to take military control of Taiwan, he points out. 

補充說道,美方簽定的任何法案或合約都應確實維持和強化國家利益 

Any act or treaty that the United States makes should clearly aim to maintain and expand the countrys capacity for prosperity, remarks Davis.

分析台海關係,美國承擔一定的風險及成本,獲得多數的利益卻是另一方,這顯然不符合美國的利益。 

The problem is that it is clearly not in Americas interest to require a state to assume risks and costs while the other party reaps the bulk of the benefits, he continues. 

因此戴維斯建議美國應鼓勵日本、南韓及台灣等區域盟友提升國家的軍事實力,藉此降低中國動武的機率。 

The analyst suggests that the U.S. rather encourages its allies in the region, such as Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, to further build their own military capabilities to dissuade China from using force. 

台灣需特別強化防禦能力,特別是「反介入與區域拒止」(Anti-Access/Area Denial,A2/AD)的武力部屬簡單說就是一旦出現突發事件,其中一方迅速在事發區域劃定禁區,阻止第三方武裝干涉的能力。強化台灣軍力將使中共不敢貿然武統台灣。 

Taiwan, in particular, should strengthen its defenses with its own Anti Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) weapon system a device or a strategy used to prevent an adversary from occupying or traversing an area of land, sea or air – and raise the eventual costs of forcibly unifying with China. 

即使上述做法無法保證中共將永不侵台,戴維斯強調站在美國的立場,在利益遭直接威脅的前提下,美方毫無理由冒軍事失利或財崩潰的風險。 

Even if it would not guarantee that China would never attack Taiwan, Davis emphasizes that it doesnt make sense to risk military defeat or financial ruin when our interests are not directly threatened.  

美國衛生及公共服務部部長亞歷克斯·阿薩爾(Alex Azar會見蔡英文總統台美1979年斷交後訪台的最高級別官員。就此,戴維斯提及的問題對台美關係發展顯得格外重要。 

This is an important question as U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar met with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen on Monday, the highest-level visit by an American Cabinet official since the break of formal diplomatic ties between Washington and Taipei in 1979.