新變種病毒會持續出現嗎?醫學專家:只要有病患就會|Can new variants of the virus keep emerging?

Will new variants of the coronavirus keep emerging? (AP Illustration/Peter Hamlin)

【看學CP英文】新的變種病毒會持續出現嗎?專家表示,只要病毒繼續感染人群,變種病毒會持續出現。但是這不代表這些變種病毒會定期的出現,也不代表它們傳染力會更強。

Can new variants of the coronavirus keep emerging? Yes, as long as the virus that caused the pandemic keeps infecting people. But that doesn’t mean new variants will keep emerging as regularly, or that they’ll be more dangerous.

由於全世界仍有一半以上的人尚未接種疫苗,該病毒可能會在未來幾個月或幾年內不斷地找到人感染,並在他們體內複製。病毒每次的複製,都可能出現小突變。這些變化將有助於病毒生存,成為新的變種病毒。

With more than half the world still not vaccinated, the virus will likely keep finding people to infect and replicating inside them for several months or years to come. And each time a virus makes a copy of itself, a small mutation could occur. Those changes could help the virus survive, becoming new variants.

但這並不代表自2019年年底出現的該病毒會以同樣的方式演變。

But that doesn’t mean the virus will keep evolving in the same way since it emerged in late 2019.

賓州大學的病毒專家安德魯.理德 (Andrew Read)表示,當一種病毒感染了一個新的物種時,它需要適應新的宿主以便更廣泛地傳播。

When a virus infects a new species, it needs to adapt to the new host to spread more widely, says Andrew Read, a virus expert at Pennsylvania State University.

根據美國疾病管制暨預防中心(CDC)所述,Delta變種病毒的傳染性是早期病毒的兩倍。密西根大學病毒和傳染病專家亞當.羅琳 (Adam Lauring)博士表示,雖然它可能會持續變種成傳染力更強的病毒,但傳染力可能頂多到達一倍那麼高,不會到兩倍。

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the delta variant is twice as contagious as earlier versions of the virus. And while it could still mutate to become more infectious, it probably won’t double its transmission rate again, says Dr. Adam Lauring, a virus and infectious disease expert at the University of Michigan.

羅琳補充道,「我們已經看到了該病毒的快速進化階段。它一直在感染弱勢族群,但它能做的事情並非沒有上限。」

“We’ve seen a stage of rapid evolution for the virus. It’s been harvesting the low-hanging fruit, but there’s not an infinite number of things it can do,” Lauring says.

病毒可能會變得更加致命,但目前並沒有進一步的因素讓這件事發生。病況很嚴重的人也不太可能進行社交活動將病毒傳染給其他人。

It’s possible that the virus could become more deadly, but there isn’t an evolutionary reason for that to happen. Extremely sick people are also less likely to socialize and spread the virus to others.

專家們也正在觀察新出現的變種病毒是否能更好地躲過人們從疫苗接種和感染中形成的保護。福瑞德·哈金森癌症研究中心 (Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center)病毒專家約書亞.希佛 (Joshua Schiffer)博士指出,隨著越來越多人接種疫苗,病毒必須能過通過有一定免疫力的人傳播,才能存活。

Experts are watching to see whether emerging variants could be better at evading the protection people develop from vaccination and infections. As more people get the shots, the virus would have to be able to spread through people who have some immunity for it to survive, says Dr. Joshua Schiffer, a virus expert at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center.

他揣測病毒有可能演變的下一步,表示「病毒可能會突變,讓免疫力反應沒有當初的有效。」

“The virus could take on a mutation that makes the immune response less effective,” he says.

如果發生這種狀況,科學家可能會建議定期更新疫苗配方,如同每年的流感疫苗一樣。

If that happens, scientists may recommend that vaccine formulas be updated periodically, just as annual flu shots are.